Inflácia a finančný trh
Ceny tovarov a služieb sa môžu v trhovej ekonomike kedykoľvek meniť. Niektoré ceny klesajú iné zasa rastú. Pojmom inflácia sa rozumie zníženie kúpnej sily peňažnej jednotky, ktoré sprevádza zvýšenie cenovej hladiny trvalého charakteru. O inflácii teda hovoríme vtedy, keď dochádza k všeobecnému rastu cien tovarov a služieb, nie iba k rastu cien jednotlivých položiek. Musíme preto odlišovať krátkodobé cenové šoky.
Drvivá väčšina ekonómov sa zhoduje v tom, že inflácia v priebehu času ničí hodnotu. Preto nie je veľmi dobrá pre ekonomiku. Inflácia nabáda investorov, aby nakupovali v prvom rade veci ktoré sa časom zhodnocujú a neskôr ich môžu predať s obrovským ziskom. Ako napríklad umelecké diela alebo nehnuteľnosti namiesto toho aby svoje financie investovali do podnikov.
S trvalým rastom inflácie sa spája znehodnocovanie peňazí. Z toho dôvodu to vedie mnohých investorov k záveru, že investície v podobe vkladov v bankách, alebo investície do dlhopisov sa časom znehodnocujú. A z tohto dôvodu jedinou ochranou proti inflácií sú investície do akcií. Vychádzajú z predpokladov, že v čase inflácie narastá zisk spoločnosti, tým pádom aj dividendy a zároveň aj kurzy akcií.
Mnoho výskumov, ktoré sa zaoberali sledovaním dlhodobých výnosov z akcií a inflácie vedú k tomu, že akcie neudržali tempo s rastom inflácie. Na základe mnohých výskumov vyspelých trhov došli ekonómovia k tomu, že pri nízkej miere inflácie sa zakomponuje do trhových úrokových sadzieb a inflácia nebude ovplyvňovať kurzy akcií. Iná situácia nastane pri vysokej miere inflácie. Akcie nie sú vtedy schopne udržať svoju reálnu hodnotu s infláciou aj napriek tomu, že predstavujú majetkový podiel v spoločnosti.
Vplyv inflácie na výnos akcií
Jedným z často krát spomínaných argumentov v prospech investovanie do akcií a cenných papierov je ochrana investora pred znehodnocovaním kúpnej sily peňazí. Prejavujúcej sa prostredníctvom inflácie. V prvom rade je to možné vysvetľovať jednoduchým spôsobom, a tým je dlhodobý priemerný ročný výnos dosahovaný pri investovaní do akcií, ktorý presahuje priemernú ročnú mieru inflácie. Môžeme povedať, že za roky 1971 až 2011 dosahovali výnosy na akciách v priemere dvakrát toľko, ako rástla inflácia, ktorá bola meraná indexom spotrebiteľských cien. Jednoduchý priemer spojitých výnosov nám neumožňuje spoľahlivo vysvetliť, či sú vyššie hodnoty inflácie sprevádzané aj s vyššími výnosmi akcií, alebo či je možné hovoriť o existencií nejakého vzťahu, ktorý by bolo možné využiť na ochranu proti takémuto riziku.
S každým vzrastom inflácie o 1% by mala výnosnosť akcií vzrásť taktiež o 1%. Tento vzťah je obsiahnutý predpokladom monetárnej neutrality, ktorý tvrdí, že zvyšujúce sa množstvo peňazí v obehu vede k zvyšovaniu cien, ale nemá však vplyv na reálne ekonomické procesy.
Ak by teda reálne ceny akcií boli zhodné so súčasnými a budúcim očakávaným výsledkom danej spoločnosti, tie nebudú dotknuté a tým pádom nie je žiadny dôvod na zmenu reálneho výnosu.
Súčasný pohľad na dopad inflácie
Peniaze vplyvom času neustále strácajú na svojej hodnote. Cieľom investovania je ich hodnotu ochraňovať. To znamená minimálne prekonať infláciu, poprípade dosiahnuť zisk. Mnoho ľudí však nevníma investovanie ako najsprávnejšiu voľbu a súčasť ich života, a väčšinu svojich príjmov presmerujú na spotrebu. Hlavne do potravín, oblečenia, či už do vybavenia domácnosti a tak isto na rôzne iné veci. Tieto veci však nemajú žiadnu hodnotu. A z tohto dôvodu by bolo omnoho efektívnejšie aspoň časť peňazí použiť na investovanie.
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